In our previous article on duration uncertainty we used a very simple example schedule to illustrate the basics of Acumen Risk's ability to model duration uncertainty. Weather events are difficult to predict but neverless are important to consider when building a baseline schedule.

This article gives a breif overview as to how weather modelling can be applied to a schedule using Acumen Risk.

Carrying on from our previous article, lets begin by showing the risk register, which can be done from the ribbon:

 rightpane

This will keep the activities listed on the left pane and the risk register on the right.
From the ribbon, select "Add Risk Event":

ribbon add risk

This will create a new risk in the right pane. Change the risk Type from Threat to Calendar Event as shown below:

create calendar event

 From the ribbon, click on Exchange Panels to flip the view. This puts the risk register on the left for focus:

exchange panels

We then input the relative calendar events and impact ranges that are applicable for the task and map them to the activity. Here we have mapped the rain event to Task 3:

mapping weather

In Australia we would of course use the data available from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) to ascertain probability of occurence and subsequent impacts.

For demonstration purposes however we have, in the example above created a calendar event that will trigger a delay event in either June or July or both. Note that there is a 75% probability of the event occuring in June and a 50% chance in July. The user inputs the possible day impacts that may occur for this period.

Once we have confirmed the impacts and mappings, we again Exchange Panels to bring the Gantt Activities back to the left hand side ready to run the risk analysis:

risk analysis risk

Note that this time we need to tell Acumen Risk to run the analysis including both duration uncertainty and risk events in its calculations.

Once we have run the analysis we can compare the impact of adding weather events to the simulation previoulsy run with duration uncertainty only:

output   output2

We can note that the probablity distributions are different in their characteristics. The first is skewed left indicating a more optimistic schedule where as the weather impacted schedule is more about the mean (normally distributed). The impact of weather modelling has resulted in more simulations occuring with weather delay impacting the overall duration. 

 

 

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