Acumen Risk gives users a quick and painless way of defining duration uncertainty within their schedules prior to undertaking range analysis. A schedule, even though it may be relatively low risk, still comes with inherit uncertainty in its duration estimates.

Suppose we had an example schedule:

mini schedule

Our project team may have put some effort into determining the overall duration of each activity, but there still could be some uncertainty in the durations presented within the schedule.

Importing the schedule into Acumen risk, we are then able to use the Duration Uncertainty to map out the best, most likely and worst case durations for activities within our schedule. As we adjust the slider bars for activities, three point estimates for durations are calculated for the activities:

uncertainty

As opposed to other risk analysis software packages on the market, we simply need ask our selves "are we too agressive with this duration or are we too conservative?". By applying our answer to the slider bars, we can then start to build a quick model as opposed to having to manually enter durations in other fields.

The great thing about this product is that users can define uncertainty at a higher level as opposed to having to set the duration uncertainty on every activity.

The slider bars and heat maps then tie back to pre-defined ranges which can be modified on the Uncertainty Editor:

ranges

If an activity were, for example, to be allocated a "Very Agressive" profile, we would assume that the current duration entered is the best case outcome. The activity would therefore be suject to possible larger scale blow outs.

Conversely a more "Conservative" duration estimate might mean the duration will be shorter as we may have been heavy handed in our assumptions.

Once the risk analysis has been run, the results can be viewed in the software:

output

Find out how GBA Projects can help your project perform.

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